Numbers don’t add up on Angler project

Doug Mayhugh / Culpeper Star Exponent
Published: April 5, 2008

On April 1, I attended the evening meeting of the Culpeper County Board of Supervisors. I presented them a paper containing my predictions for Culpeper County if Angler's $100 million water/sewer plan is approved. I am revising my numbers based on a tidbit of information printed in Thursday's Culpeper Star-Exponent ("Angler exec is mum on plan details"). 

"Including financing, (Steve) Vento (of Angler) said, the total project would be $108 million; the cost would be amortized over 25 years." 

Therefore, $108 million divided by 300 months would have a monthly payment of $360,000.  All of the rest of my calculations are based on assumptions.

Assuming the interest rate is 6 percent, a $360,000 monthly payment over 25 years would service a debt of $56 million. This is the assumed cost of the infrastructure of the water/sewer plan. Assuming angler wants a 10 percent return on its investment per year, $10.8 million times 25 years is $270 million.

Assumed total project cost, principal, interest and return on investment would be $378 million.

To pay for all this, Angler is going to sell tap fees at $25,000 per residential unit. $4.4 million divided by $25,000 equals 15,120 new houses needing to be constructed each year for the next 25 years. Assuming each house contains three people, there will be a population increase of 45,360, mostly in the Stevensburg District.

Assuming each new house sends one child to public school, 15,120 students would be added to 7,383 students currently enrolled; therefore. a total of 22,503 students. We currently spend $9,332 per student with an operating budget of $68 million. With 22,503 students, the operating budget for schools would extrapolate to $210 million per year. Adding capital expenditure for new school construction: three new high schools at $80 million, total $240 million; three new middle schools at $70 million, total $210 million; eight new elementary schools at $60 million, total $480 million, for a grand total of $930 million in capital expenditures.

My other questions regarding the county's cost for this water/sewer plan include, cost of full-time fire and rescue services, additional Sheriff's Office resources, parks and recreation, other county services and interest on bonds for capital expenditures.

Angler seems to be mum on the details of how much money they expect to make from their investment; they would like to keep that private. As a small business owner, in 2006 I made a significant investment in a new freestall barn for my dairy cows.
I am getting a good return on my investment, which is a private matter between me, my banker and the IRS. However, Angler wants to build a public utility, on public land and acquire public right of way over private property. This is a public matter, and it needs to be opened up to the citizens for public comment.
Angler's logo contains a fishing rod and reel. 

They have cast the bait, they are waiting for Culpeper County to bite, and then they will reel us in for all it is worth to them.